Melbourne in late 2026: prices, the duty concession and the new auction rule
Melbourne dwelling values fell 0.7% in September 2026, the mildest fall of the large capitals, and sit 7.5% below their March 2022 record. The median is $780,550, more than $400,000 under Sydney's. Melbourne now has a 4.1% gross yield, the best of the three biggest cities.
Melbourne is the capital investors stopped talking about. Values are 5.5% lower than they were five years ago. No other mainland capital has gone backwards over that stretch.
That is the bad news, and it has been the news for a long time. What is new in 2026 is everything around the price: the yield, the duty rules, and the way auctions now work.
Key facts, as at 30 September 2026
- Month: down 0.7%. Quarter: down 3.4%. Year: down 6.2%
- Below the March 2022 record by 7.5%
- Median dwelling value: $780,550. Houses $915,119, units $624,740
- Gross rental yield: 4.1%. Units 5.2%
- Auction clearance, week to 3 October: 59.5%, down from 72.4% a year ago
Sources: Cotality Home Value Index, 1 October 2026, Property Update auction report
Melbourne against the other big cities
| Gross rental yield | Value change, 12 months | |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 4.1% | -6.2% |
| Sydney | 3.4% | -7% |
| Brisbane | 3.5% | 5.9% |
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, results to 30 September 2026
| Melbourne | Sydney | Brisbane | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median dwelling value | $780,550 | $1,198,596 | $1,048,880 |
| Past month | down 0.7% | down 1.4% | down 1.5% |
| Past 12 months | down 6.2% | down 7.0% | up 5.9% |
| Past 10 years | up 24.3% | up 39.5% | up 105.3% |
| Gross rental yield | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
A median Melbourne dwelling now costs about $268,000 less than a median Brisbane one. Ten years ago that would have sounded absurd.
Melbourne's September fall was the mildest of the big capitals. Cotality notes it is "now showing a milder rate of decline" than each of the mid sized capitals. A market that has already fallen a long way has less far to fall.
Only two Melbourne areas rose over the year: Sunbury, up 1.3%, and Maribyrnong, up 0.5%.
Rule one: the off the plan concession
Victoria charges more stamp duty per dollar than any other state. On the median dwelling, an investor buying an established home pays $41,903 by our calculator.
There is a way to cut that. Victoria's temporary off the plan concession lets a buyer of a new strata apartment, unit or townhouse deduct construction costs from the value that duty is charged on. Investors qualify, and there is no price limit.
It covers contracts signed before 21 April 2027. It has been extended before. We would not count on it again.
Because an off the plan apartment is a new build, it also keeps negative gearing under the federal law. Two tax advantages on one purchase is rare. So is the risk that comes with it, which we set out in off the plan after the Budget.
Rule two: you see the reserve first
From 1 October 2026, buyers in Victoria get access to the seller's reserve price seven days before an auction or a fixed date sale. Consumer Affairs Victoria says the aim is for buyers to "better understand whether a property is within their budget".
The change is aimed at underquoting, where the advertised price sits well below what the seller will take. A disclosed reserve makes that much harder.
It arrives in a soft market. In the week to 3 October, Melbourne held 714 auctions, down from 1,074 a year earlier, and 59.5% sold. Sellers now have to name their number a week early, with four in ten auctions failing.
Our view
The yield is the real change. At 5.2% gross, a Melbourne unit comes closer to covering its interest than a house in any large capital.
Cheap is not the same as good value. Melbourne has been cheap against Sydney for years and kept falling. High duty and land tax are part of why investors left. Run the holding costs before the purchase price tempts you.
Use the new rule. Ask for the reserve as soon as it is available, and do not attend an auction where it is above your limit.
In late 2025 we wrote about Melbourne suburbs to watch. It is still up, as written, for the record.
Open the Stamp Duty Calculator
Frequently asked questions
Are Melbourne house prices falling?
Yes. Melbourne dwelling values fell 0.7% in September 2026 and 3.4% over the quarter. They are 6.2% lower than a year ago and 7.5% below the record set in March 2022.
What is the median house price in Melbourne?
At the end of September 2026 the median house value was $915,119 and the median unit value was $624,740, according to Cotality. The median for all dwellings was $780,550.
What is the rental yield in Melbourne?
Melbourne's gross rental yield was 4.1% in September 2026: 3.5% for houses and 5.2% for units. That is higher than Sydney at 3.4% and Brisbane at 3.5%.
How much is stamp duty on a median Melbourne property?
For an investor buying an established home at the Melbourne median of $780,550, the Presm Stamp Duty Calculator gives $41,903.
Sources
- Cotality, Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September, Home Value Index, 1 October 2026
- State Revenue Office Victoria, off the plan duty concession
- Consumer Affairs Victoria, Greater property price transparency for Victorian homebuyers, 2 October 2026
- Property Update, National Weekly Auction Report, week to 3 October 2026
This is general information, not financial or legal advice.